Russia also changed the contours of the war this week when proxy officials installed in four occupied regions in Ukraine-Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizka-announced their plans to hold referendums on formally joining Russia. It is not clear how much time Putin thinks he has left to reverse the course of his war before events overtake him-politically or militarily. A stubborn Putin, cornered on the ground, and whose authority is increasingly questioned at home is more likely to be willing to reaffirm-and use all-his power.Įmma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, wrote on Twitter that “today’s developments are disturbing because they suggest that Russia may not be willing to lose in Ukraine.” But military analysts say a mobilization would take several months-even up to a year-before it leads to any significant operational benefit on the ground. But many experts believe that’s precisely when Russia’s leader may be the most dangerous. Claiming at a summit in Uzbekistan last week that Ukraine was attempting to carry out “terrorist acts” inside Russia, Putin threatened to escalate the war in response if his “warning strikes” on Ukrainian infrastructure were not taken seriously.Įven then, some interpreted Putin’s decision to go for a partial-not a general-mobilization and his renewed-but vague-nuclear threats as a clear indication of a weakened position. But Ukraine’s counter-offensive in recent weeks has changed the contours of the war. Since the start of his “special military operation” in February, the Russian president has tried to keep life as unchanged as possible for Russians, despite the unmissable economic consequences of sanctions. It was also an apparent attempt to reassert his domestic authority as he faces increased criticism at home for his handling of the war in Ukraine. Putin’s address seemed to be more than merely a response to military challenges on the battlefield. In the latest indication of the growing offensive capability of Ukrainian forces, UK intelligence reported that the Russian Navy has removed some of its submarines from the port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, apparently out of concerns about their vulnerability to Ukrainian long-range missiles. Ukraine also has been pushing a counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region, although with limited gains. Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces stunned Russia-and the world-with a swift offensive in the northern region, regaining over 1,000 square miles of territory from the occupying Russian forces. Putin’s address comes at a critical juncture in his war in Ukraine, with Russia’s military facing setbacks, heavy casualties, logistical problems, and declining morale. Anticipating the unpopularity of the mobilization, Putin clarified that “only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.”Īccusing the United States and its allies of engaging in “nuclear blackmail,” Putin noted darkly that “I want to remind you that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have.” Russia’s war in Ukraine seemed to have escalated this week when, in a videotaped address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of the country’s military and made an indirect threat of nuclear weapons use.
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